How low can he go?
I thought McCain made a misstep when he selected Palin. I thought his cynicism and rash judgment were evident, would easily be seen through, and would foment a backlash. I thought wrong.
So my first thought when I heard the latest news -- well, actually, what I heard on the radio was the brief snippet "McCain suspends his campaign," and my brain obligingly matched this information with the previously-heard "Edwards suspends campaign," and "Clinton suspends campaign," and I was, all too briefly, euphoric.
But, anyway, then I thought, of course, of the obvious: oh, c'mon -- how could anyone not see this as a desperate bid for a timeout, and an attempt to prevent the media (who are, I'm the first to argue, after all patently pro-Obama) from taking the spark of a small pullaway lead and breathing oxygen into it until it catches? And, at the same time, naturally (and transparently!), an opportunity to shield Palin from further scrutiny...? Surely, this time, everyone will get it, and they'll be ticked to have been thought so easily led.
But then I thought: geez, I dunno. McCain's already gambled on lowballing the electorate's collective IQ -- and won. Not only does it make perfect sense that he'd try again, aiming just a little bit lower, but, frankly, at this point, I'm not sure he doesn't have a more accurate bead on it than I do.
So my first thought when I heard the latest news -- well, actually, what I heard on the radio was the brief snippet "McCain suspends his campaign," and my brain obligingly matched this information with the previously-heard "Edwards suspends campaign," and "Clinton suspends campaign," and I was, all too briefly, euphoric.
But, anyway, then I thought, of course, of the obvious: oh, c'mon -- how could anyone not see this as a desperate bid for a timeout, and an attempt to prevent the media (who are, I'm the first to argue, after all patently pro-Obama) from taking the spark of a small pullaway lead and breathing oxygen into it until it catches? And, at the same time, naturally (and transparently!), an opportunity to shield Palin from further scrutiny...? Surely, this time, everyone will get it, and they'll be ticked to have been thought so easily led.
But then I thought: geez, I dunno. McCain's already gambled on lowballing the electorate's collective IQ -- and won. Not only does it make perfect sense that he'd try again, aiming just a little bit lower, but, frankly, at this point, I'm not sure he doesn't have a more accurate bead on it than I do.
8 Comments:
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Bill Abendroth said...
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- 4:56 AM
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David Schraub said...
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- 1:59 PM
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esquiver said...
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- 10:40 AM
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David Schraub said...
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- 8:08 PM
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Anonymous said...
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- 8:36 PM
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Anonymous said...
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- 7:54 PM
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David Schraub said...
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- 3:24 PM
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Anonymous said...
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- 7:01 PM
Post a CommentTo the Editor--(he he!)
I'm not sure I'd go so far as to say that Senator McCain has 'won' in low-balling Amerika (sic) in selecting Gov. Palin. There's a long time (in politics world) between now and the November elections, and I can't imagine that Gov. Palin will be able to avoid having interviews before then (Sean Hanity does not count). Senators Obama and Biden will be all over the media, talking to everyone.....On the other hand, at a recent McCain function, a woman 'asked' a question about how personally outraged she was that the 'media' was attacking a 17 year old girl. At long last, she said, have you no sense of decency? (or words to the effect).
McCain has dug himself a fairly deep hole: he's trying to be the party of change, yet must continue the implicit assertion that Sadam Hussein was the mastermind behind the 9/11 attacks. He's critical of Obama's lack of experience, and yet selected someone who (in her words) doesn't have a 'big fat resume.' McCain wants to be an environmentalist, breaking with the Bush White House on climate change, while chanting 'drill baby drill!'
Be that as it may, after $85 billion (yes, in loan guarantees, Ted you big mouth) to AIG, $515 billion for the Iraq War, and $700 billion to bail out Wall Street, etc etc, I don't think the next President is going to cut any taxes (John McCain) or do much of anything but pay bills (Barak Obama).
I guess that's the legacy of the Bush Administration: Sucks to be you!
I'm also confused on why you thought wrong re: Palin. Her numbers are in the tank, she's a national joke, everyone outside the base thinks she'll be a disaster as president, and the campaign is terrified of letting her be seen in public. I think that it was a classic of case of McCain letting a short-term boost (new! fresh! mavericky! breasts!) blinding them to long term consequences. The Palin boom has long since dissipated, and now she's a massive anchor on the campaign.
David,
I think we need to be careful not to overly-weight the glib-erati just because that's who we read and talk to. There's been a change of attitude among them, I'll grant you that. But in the Heartland? Among those we don't talk to (and who don't read)? I'm skeptical that the Big Damn Populist Hero meter has moved all that much. I'm encouraged by the national numbers, but the polls in the battlegrounds need a higher buffer in anticipation of the yes, very real, Bradley effect before I'll be able to sleep through the night without the usual 3 AM screaming fits.
Also, I was going to say this the first time you made passing mention on your blog to Palin bringing the breasts, but since you've said it again here, now: I'd stick to ovarian references. McCain is 72. Trust me, Palin or no Palin, there are breasts in this campaign.
A fair point on the breasts (and besides -- calling her women-baiting power her "ova-rays" is far wittier).
As for Palin, WSJ/NBC has her only at 40% for "qualified for President", while CNN/Opinion Research Corp. has her at 47/49 on whether she has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have.
At best, I think Palin helps McCain win Georgia by 20 instead of 10, and puts a couple of smaller states (SD, ND, MT, AK) out of play. But she didn't even give McCain an initial bounce in Colorado, and I don't think she's helping McCain in the states he needs the most help at. Five Thirty Eight's election projections are looking good for the Big Blue right now.
Snort. Oh, yeah, it's the women who're caught in Palin's headlights (as it were).
Ohio and Florida. (But especially Ohio.) They aggrieve me.
Given everything that's happened today, who knows where the political fall out is. I would offer a tentative disagreement regarding the Bradley effect. I have no doubt that racism will keep a number of people from voting for Obama. But, as you know, the Bradley effect is more complicated -- it presupposes that people will vote against a candidate based on race and that those same people will claim to pollsters that they are in fact voting for that candidate. My personal suspicion is that lying to pollsters is a result of the local political culture -- i.e., it's assumed that the voter will be voting democratic, and so an admission that he or she would be voting against the democratic candidate would raise the appearance of prejudice (an appearance that the voter attempts to avoid by claiming he or she will be voting for the candidate).
For this reason, I could see the Bradley effect -- if it exists at all -- most powerful in places where the assumption is that the person will be voting democratic: Massachusetts, California, etc. In other words, places where a small Bradley effect won't hurt.
But in places where there isn't as pervasive a presumption of voting Democratic, such as Ohio, there isn't the same (self-created) pressure to lie to the pollster. Nothing about claiming to vote for McCain that will make the voter feel embarrassed/guilty.
Of course, we won't know for certain whether the Bradley effect is a legitimate worry until election night.
Snort. Oh, yeah, it's the women who're caught in Palin's headlights (as it were).
Oh, Lord, do I ever admit defeat on that point!
Just wanted to say I'm glad to find someone else also had the same euphoric reaction before the realization sank in that it would, of course, be only a temporary suspension
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